AI Projections — Strait of Hormuz

Daily AI model driven by three inputs: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level, current Brent crude price, and Hormuz tanker throughput vs pre-war baselines. Projects a dated cascade of consequences — global and specifically American — if Hormuz does not return to normal.

Situation snapshot

Hormuz vs pre-Gaza
—
Hormuz vs pre-Iran
—
SPR runway
—
at current drawdown
Brent Δ pre-war
—
Days since disruption
—

Daily AI situation brief

Generating first projection… The model runs daily. If this persists, the endpoint hasn't been reached by cron yet — publishing the app enables the schedule.

Projected timeline — crude oil & peace deal (next 30 days)

Timeline generating — will populate on next daily refresh.

Global consequences

Generating on next refresh.

American consequences

Generating on next refresh.

Total collapse date

If Strait of Hormuz does NOT recover to pre-war levels
Not projected — current flow trajectory does not lead to full collapse within modeled horizon.
Trigger thresholds (any one trips collapse)
  • • US retail gasoline > pre-Gaza baseline + $1.50/gal
  • • US retail diesel > pre-Gaza baseline + $1.75/gal
  • • Strategic Petroleum Reserve < 250 mb
  • • S&P 500 drawdown > 20% from pre-Iran baseline
Recovery criteria (resets the projection)
  • • Hormuz tanker transits return to within 10% of pre-Gaza average
  • • EIA Persian Gulf flow ≥ pre-Iran-strike baseline for 14 consecutive days
  • • Brent crude sustained below pre-Iran baseline + $5/bbl
AI projection based on public data. Not investment or policy advice. Model output changes with each daily refresh as new data arrives.